The interesting details from your timeline, DragonNinja, show that documents at HMPOs are also being worked through during the evening to be recorded as ‘received’ against individual applications, and passports are being approved even early in the morning on a weekend day, despite it being a bank holiday weekend. Along with clear evidence of passports being printed in the middle of the night (my wife’s was printed after midnight last Saturday), this points to procedures carrying on at all hours. I wonder if that’s normal or part of the contingency plans for the strike weeks?
However, it ain’t arrived until it’s arrived so nothing is guaranteed until then. Bear in mind it could be delivered by DHL (as my wife’s was) or TNT and that you may well not get any tracking information beforehand. You might, but we didn’t.